It was 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
